The South Carolina Republican Primary

The upcoming South Carolina Primary this weekend will be the first "southern" primary in the nomination process for the Republican Party in the 2012 Presidential race.  The candidates are the same as in New Hampshire, but the population doing the voting is much different.  A few points regarding this upcoming debate:

• Mitt Romney has won the Iowa Caucus and New Hampshire primary, and is polling in first place in the South Carolina primary.  Rick Santorum has gained momentum, as has Jon Huntsman.  Ron Paul and Newt Gingrich continue to be strong, but unable to break into the top. Rick Perry is well funded, but has been lacking in results so far.

• South Carolina is considered to be more conservative than both Iowa and New Hampshire.  Mitt Romney is considered to be the more moderate candidate in the race, while the other candidates are seen as splitting the conservative vote.  The fact that all of them remained in the race after New Hampshire means that they will continue to split that area of the vote.

• Many say that this will be a tough primary for Mitt Romney due to being more moderate than the other candidates.   However, he does not lack experience in gaining conservative votes.  In the 2008 primary, it was his splitting of the conservative vote with Huckabee and Thompson that lead to McCain's South Carolina victory in that primary.

• The attacks on Mitt Romney's work at Bain Capital will backfire on those that are making or supporting such attacks.  The republican voters of South Carolina will see through such attacks and understand them for what they are: attempts to degrade the record of a very successful, job-creating company by deceitfully picking negative aspects of private equity while omitting the many benefits and successes of Bain and companies like it.  This will hurt Gingrich (now polling in second place) and Perry whose large amount of funding has kept him in the race despite less than desirable results.

• The South Carolina primary may be the end for Rick Santorum and Jon Huntsman due to lack of funding (however both have been gaining momentum), but the rest of the candidates still seem to be financially able to continue regardless of the results.

• Ron Paul, as usual, has very strong and vocal support.  They will continue to stay strong through the vote, and with a solid push this week could lead him to a strong third place or even second.  He will need to immediately start looking to the future to continue his run.

South Carolina is proving to be a very interesting contest, but will come up far shy of deciding a nominee or even taking many out of the race.  I predict that Mitt Romney and Ron Paul will have a good showing when the results come in, and Rick Perry, Rick Santorum, and Newt Gingrich will come up short of their expectations.  This could all change based on performance in the 2 debates this week or any big news between now and the vote.  More than likely, all of them will survive and be looking ahead to Florida at the end of the month.